Why are there concerns that the spread of avian influenza can lead to a pandemic?

Influenza viruses are highly unstable and unreliable.

Research has identified three prerequisites for the start of a pandemic.

A new influenza virus must emerge to which the general population will have little or no immunity against.

The new virus must be able to infect humans and cause disease.

The new virus must be effectively transmitted from one human to another, thus leading to efficient human-to-human transmission of the virus causing community-wide outbreaks.

The first two prerequisites have been met by avian influenza H5N1. If the third prerequisite is met, H5N1 will cause a pandemic.

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